By Karen Lema
MANILA (Reuters) – The alliance between Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte disintegrated this week when they accused each other of using drugs, a rift that could threaten framesreform agenda and risks fueling instability.
The alliance between two of the Philippines’ most influential families that brought Marcos and Duterte’s daughter Sara to power in 2022 was always expected to collapse, but analysts are surprised at how quickly the gloves have come off.
“This is a point of no return,” said Jean Encinas-Franco, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, noting the ferocity of the exchanges between the two families.
Sebastian Duterteson of the former president and mayor of Davao City, has called on Marcos to resign over flawed policies such as his pro-American foreign policy, which he says “endangers the lives of innocent Filipinos.”
“The opportunist political alliance was not meant to last,” said Temario Rivera, president of the Center for People Empowerment in Governance think tank.
“It seems that the breakup is coming very soon.”
Marcos was quick to downplay the tensions and said Tuesday that the coalition was intact. “It’s still working,” he said, adding that he maintained Sarah Duterte as minister of education.
Marcos’ office did not respond to a request for comment. There was no immediate response from the Dutertes.
But political analysts said the gap could now threaten Marcos’s ambitious plans to grow the economy, create jobs, reform infrastructure and strengthen the military.
“A breakdown of the formal alliance risks fomenting new divisions within the military, which would cause serious problems of governance and stability,” Rivera said.
SWEEP TO POWER
The Marcos and Duterte families joined forces in 2022, with Sara Duterte as Marcos’ running mate for the vice presidency, allowing Marcos to tap into the Duterte family’s enormous support base and seal the return of the disgraced Marcos dynasty.
Ferdinand Marcos Sr. was president for two decades and ruled as an authoritarian before being overthrown in the “people power” uprising of 1986. Marcos Sr. and his wife Imelda were accused of amassing more than $10 billion while in office. The charge.
But cracks soon emerged in the Marcos-Duterte relationship.
Marcos reversed Duterte’s pro-China stance and returned to the United States, granting Washington greater access to Philippine bases amid China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea and near Taiwan.
It brought to the fore a 2016 arbitration ruling that strengthens Manila’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, which Duterte largely set aside in a move seen as targeting China, which has overlapping sovereignty claims in the China Sea. Southern.
Marcos also sought to revive peace talks with communist rebels, which his predecessor had discarded and which Sara Duterte has called a “deal with the devil.”
A blow to the relationship came in November when Marcos said he was considering rejoining the International Criminal Court. Duterte had withdrawn his membership in 2018 after the court’s prosecutor announced a preliminary examination of thousands of killings in Duterte’s war on drugs.
An investigation into Duterte’s internationally criticized “war on drugs” is underway at the Hague-based court.
Marcos has supported moves to change the 1987 constitution, saying it would ease regulations for businesses and attract investors, but Duterte accused him of using the constitutional change to stay in power.
Opponents of the constitutional change say their goal is to change the political system and eliminate term limits, including that of the president, who can currently serve only a six-year term.
Duterte warned that Marcos could suffer the same fate as his father, who had to flee the country, if he insisted on amending the Constitution introduced after the 1986 revolution.
‘OPEN WAR’
The alliance publicly disintegrated on Sunday when Duterte called Marcos a “drug addict” during a demonstration against efforts to change the charter. His daughter attended the demonstration.
Marcos responded by saying Duterte’s use of fentanyl, which the former leader admitted to using in the past to relieve pain, could have clouded his judgment.
Analysts said the public unrest could be related to the 2028 presidential race, which Sara Duterte is expected to participate in and has a strong chance. A 2023 poll by pollster Social Weather Stations showed her as the top pick for president in 2028.
“This year will be an open war,” said Ronald Llamas, a veteran political analyst and former presidential adviser.
The Philippines will hold midterm elections in 2025 to elect half of the Senate, elect congressmen and local officials.
If the candidates Marcos backs lose the midterm elections, or his supporters switch allegiances, his legislative agenda could be in jeopardy, analysts said.
(Reporting by Karen Lema; Editing by Michael Perry)