And the race kicks off what will be at least six contested races in New York, which will be at the center of the fight for control of the House in November.

Here are five things we’ll be watching as the votes come in:

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National versus local

The district’s next House lawmaker will likely face votes of global importance, including aid to allies such as Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan. The winner will be a crucial vote in any deal to keep the federal government open.

“The nation is watching what happens here,” the Republican representative said. Elise Stefanik he said Monday night at a rally in Nassau County for Pilip. “The world is watching what happens here.”

But the race could also revolve around a handful of local issues important to Long Islanders, such as housing and the controversial tolling plan for Manhattan, a measure that is expected to affect suburban commuters.

Redistricting redo

This seat may soon look different, as a round of court-ordered redistricting is expected to produce a new House map for New York later this month.

It remains unclear whether the state’s redistricting commission, evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, will be able to negotiate a deal and draw up a map or whether the process will be sent to Democratic supermajorities in the state Legislature.

But come November, Suozzi or Pilip will run with a different set of voters and potentially recalibrate their message along the way.

Snow, wait

Turnout is the name of the game in special elections, and the expected winter weather could keep voters home.

Too much snow could be detrimental for Republicans, in particular, as they count on voting day to make up for Democrats’ apparent advantage in early and absentee voting.

“I’m asking people to go out and do their patriotic, Republican, Democratic, independent duty,” Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman told reporters.

“I would tell you to stay home if it’s to run an errand or get your nails done or go to the barber or something that can wait a day or two. But these are the elections.”

saints saga

“Do you miss me already?” Santos mocked X after House Republicans failed to oust Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

The battle to fill his seat may help the district overcome the saga of the impeached representative, who misled voters about his biography and is accused of fraud.

Suozzi, the Democratic candidate, has tried to label Pilip “George Santos 2.0,” as a reminder of how little the public knows about her.

Meanwhile, Nassau County Republicans don’t mention it unless asked about it.

“Page turned, page turned,” said the Republican representative. Antonio D’Esposito he said succinctly.

When will we know the winner?

Polls close at 9 p.m.

But the Nassau County Board of Elections is notoriously slow in reporting results.

And everyone expects a close race. We could stay late into the night.

Or a long week.

A version of this article first appeared in New York Playbook.
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By Sam