By John Geddie, Tim Kelly and Yoshifumi Takemoto
TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan, the United States’ closest ally in Asia, has been trying to send a message to the U.S. presidential candidate. donald trump: Do not try to reach any agreement with China that could end years of collective efforts to rein in Beijing and put the region’s fragile peace at risk.
Tokyo has stepped up its attempts to engage with people close to Trump in recent weeks, as the 77-year-old’s victories in Republican primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire have led him to emerge in some polls as the front-runner in the presidential election. of November.
The disclosure, detailed in interviews with six Japanese officials, many of which have not been previously reported, comes as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida prepares for a state visit to the United States in April at the invitation of President Joe Biden.
Japan’s efforts have included sending a senior ruling party figure to try to meet with Trump and engaging Japanese diplomats with think tanks and former U.S. officials aligned with Trump, three of the officials said.
Tokyo’s main concern is that if Trump returns to power he could seek some kind of trade or security agreement between the world’s two largest economies that could undermine recent efforts by the Group of Seven (G7) to counter China, according to the report. six officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Trump, who reached a trade deal with Beijing in 2019 that later expired, has not mentioned any potential deals with China during his campaign for the 2024 nomination.
Japanese officials said they had no specific knowledge of Trump’s plans, but based their concerns on his public comments and actions during his 2017-2021 term, in which he avoided some multilateral cooperation and defended his relations with authoritarian leaders such as Xi Jinping of China. and he unsuccessfully sought a nuclear deal with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Two Japanese Foreign Ministry officials said they fear Trump may be prepared to weaken U.S. support for nearby Taiwan in pursuit of a deal with China. They said such a move could embolden Beijing, which claims Taiwan and has not ruled out seizing the island by force.
A Trump aide told Reuters there have been no recent meetings between Trump and Japanese officials. They did not want to make any further comments.
When asked in an interview with Fox News in July 2023 whether the United States should help defend Taiwan if it means going to war with China, Trump said: “If I answer that question, I will put myself in a very bad negotiating position.” “Taiwan took all of our chip business. We used to make our own chips. “They are now made in Taiwan.”
Tokyo is also concerned that Trump could hit Japan again with protectionist trade measures, such as steel tariffs, and revive demands that he pay more toward the cost of stationing U.S. forces in the country, according to the six Japanese officials.
Japan’s communication is part of a precautionary approach to understand whether these issues are likely to resurface and convey Tokyo’s positions, two of the officials said. Trump said this week that, if elected, he would block Japan’s Nippon Steel’s planned $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel.
In a statement, Japan’s Foreign Ministry said it was “watching the US presidential election with great interest,” while highlighting the US’s bipartisan commitment to the US-Japan alliance.
Ado Machida, a Tokyo-based businessman who served on Trump’s transition team after his 2016 election victory, said Japanese officials were eager to connect with their former boss.
“If it is going to make a deal with China, Japan needs to try to get ahead of the curve and understand its potential role in supporting its interests in both the United States and China,” Machida said.
The foreign ministries of China and Taiwan said they would work closely with the United States regardless of the election outcome.
The late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was the first foreign leader to meet with Trump after his victory in 2016. The pair formed a close relationship, forged over hours on the golf course, that helped defuse several contentious issues.
ARRIVE
Taro Aso, a leading figure in Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) who was deputy prime minister under Trump, traveled to the United States last month to try to meet with Trump, although he was unable to see him, according to three of the six officials. Aso’s office declined to comment.
Japan’s new U.S. ambassador, Shigeo Yamada, was appointed late last year with specific instructions to connect with the Trump campaign, according to two of the officials. Japan’s embassy in Washington, on behalf of the ambassador, declined to comment on matters related to the US election.
Complicating matters for Tokyo is that many of Trump’s former Cabinet members who focused on Japan, such as Mike Pence, Jim Mattis and Mike Pompeo, are no longer seen as close to him, said Michael Green, a former U.S. official who runs the US Government Studies Center at the University of Sydney.
Senator Bill Hagerty, a former Trump envoy to Japan who some analysts say could play a leading role in a second Trump administration, met with several Japanese officials during a visit to Tokyo earlier in the year.
He also sat next to Aso and Yamada at an event hosted by the U.S. Embassy in Japan during Aso’s trip to the United States, according to photos the embassy posted on social media.
Hagerty told Reuters that Japanese interlocutors “know Trump and know that he is someone who means business” in the region, adding that Japan’s main concerns – Chinese and North Korean aggression – seemed like they did in 2016.
Robert O’Brien, Trump’s former national security adviser, also has connections to Japanese officials, two of the sources said. O’Brien, whose consulting firm American Global Strategies counts former Japanese national security adviser Shigeru Kitamura among its ranks, did not respond to requests for comment.
‘RISKY SEAS’
Tokyo is especially concerned that Trump’s return could create volatility with China. In interacting with people Japan considers close to Trump, it has been emphasizing the benefits of a multilateral approach to China policy, two of the Japanese officials said, such as the G7 agreement last year to counter economic coercion and reduce risk. of critical supply chains. .
While Biden has repeatedly said that the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion (although the White House later walked back his comments), Trump has been less clear about his position.
“We don’t want dangerous seas of misunderstanding,” said Tsuneo Watanabe, a fellow at the Tokyo-based policy research organization Sasakawa Peace Foundation, who said he was aware of Japan’s attempts to reach out to Trump.
In a foreword to a new edition of his memoirs published this week, former US national security adviser John Bolton wrote that, if re-elected, Trump could embolden China to blockade Taiwan.
A challenge for Japan is determining who will try to placate Trump if he returns to office.
Officials and analysts say Kishida, whose ratings have plummeted due to several partisan scandals, may not be in charge as the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election approaches. The LDP is due to hold a vote on its leadership at the end of September.
“Clearly Trump is a factor” in the election of the LDP leader, Watanabe said, adding that ideally the party would look for a candidate who can speak English, establish a good relationship with Trump and play golf.
“A good golfer is bad. You just need to be a good golfer to not beat Trump,” he said.
(Reporting by John Geddie, Tim Kelly, Yoshifumi Takemoto, Yukiko Toyoda, Kaori Kaneko and Sakura Murakami in Tokyo; additional reporting by David Brunnstrom and Tim Reid in Washington, Ben Blanchard in Taipei and Laurie Chen and Liz Lee in Beijing; editing by David Crawshaw)