Here’s the problem: The Charleston-Low Country and Columbia political region, where it is likely strongest, only dominates one of the state’s seven congressional districts: the Charleston-based 1st District. While the region strongly influences two other nearby seats (the 2nd and 6th), those districts have countervailing forces that could boost Trump.
The 2nd District’s Republican electorate lives primarily in Lexington and Aiken counties, which gave solid majorities to Trump and religious conservative candidates in 2016. The 6th is a near-black district that has many rural counties that lean heavily toward Trump. Their large black population, which tends to vote Democratic, means there are relatively fewer white moderates than Haley has, while white Republicans in these counties tend to be non-college evangelicals.
The bottom line is that Haley could lose two congressional districts with a high number of college-educated voters in each, exactly the demographic that is in her sweet spot.
MYRTLE BEACH
Most people think of Myrtle Beach as a tourist destination, but it’s also Horry County’s largest city and a Trump stronghold. The county is the fourth largest in the state; It is the fastest growing and dominates the 7th Congressional District.
Its political distinction is that it has the lowest proportion of college-educated white voters of any congressional district in the state. Incumbent Rep. Russell Fry won his Trump-backed seat in 2022 by unseating Republican incumbent Tom Rice, who had voted to impeach Trump. Horry County was also Trump’s best in the 2016 primary, giving him 49 percent of the vote compared to 32 percent statewide.