The forecasts are anything but optimistic: the best Ukraine can hope for in 2024, many Western officials and analysts say, is simply to hold the line.
Just a year ago, Ukraine was brimming with confidence. She had defied expectations, preventing Russia’s attempt to take over the country. Western nations, encouraged by Ukraine’s success, pledged aid to help the Ukrainians break through Russian lines.
But the flow of much-needed weapons from the allies into the country was unpredictable and slow. Ukraine’s own domestic arms production was mired in bureaucracy, senior military officials have said. And the Army’s command structure was not changing quickly enough to manage a force that had expanded from 200,000 soldiers to nearly a million in a matter of months.
Those weaknesses, and some strategic errors on the battlefield, hampered Ukraine’s widely telegraphed counteroffensive, which resulted in only marginal territorial gains. At the same time, Russia was fortifying its defensive lines, converting its economy to war production, recruiting hundreds of thousands of fighters and adjusting its strategy for new offensives this winter.
Now, as the war enters its third year, kyiv’s leaders are trying to find a new path forward amid fierce Russian attacks, while facing a series of daunting unknowns.
The most urgent of them is outside Ukraine’s control: Will the US Congress find billions more in military and economic aid? Without that, Western officials and military analysts have said, Ukraine’s war effort would be at serious risk.
But Ukraine has the power to address other issues. Can their civilian leaders muster the will to implement a potentially unpopular mobilization plan to replenish their depleted forces? Can the military command and civilian government repair the divisions that have divided them and led to the recent dismissal of Ukraine’s top general?
“Of course, uncertainty always affects all processes,” Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said in an interview. “We can talk for a long time about how the war has changed, because it is completely different from what it was in February and March 2022. But the main thing there must be is certainty.”
For now, Ukraine has to move forward without that certainty. Even as he pushes for more Western support, President Volodymyr Zelensky is beginning to take steps to improve some of the systemic problems under his control.
For example, kyiv has added several command headquarters to oversee brigades more efficiently. And while the new top general, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, is a product of the Soviet military system, Zelensky has installed under him a younger generation of generals who he hopes will bring more innovation to the battlefield.
Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has promised to accelerate the development of ammunition production in Ukraine. He also introduced a new procurement process to replace a post-Soviet system that was slower and more susceptible to corruption; One goal is to ensure that the system integrates more seamlessly with those of other nations.
Another initiative is the Future Force Project, which brings together experts from different government departments, with the assistance of NATO partners. Its mission is to better organize the Ukrainian military for the needs of fighting a large-scale war, seeking to improve aspects such as communication and coordination between branches.
It is based on the best practices of Western militaries and already has the president’s verbal blessing, military officials said.
Despite these expected changes, military analysts and Western officials have expressed sobering assessments of Ukraine’s chances against a Russian army with superior troop numbers and ammunition reserves, and a clear willingness to sacrifice thousands of soldiers to achieve even small gains.
As Ukraine faces these imbalances, it also faces the once unthinkable prospect of fighting a long war without American military backing.
With U.S. support withheld for months by an increasingly isolationist faction of Republicans in Congress, severe ammunition shortages have contributed to Ukraine’s losses, such as the brutal and ultimately unsuccessful fight to hold Avdiivka, which in turn time has led Ukraine to suffer greater casualties. , putting even more pressure on their already depleted forces.
Ukrainian military commanders will have to find ways to stop that vicious cycle as political leaders launch another desperate diplomatic effort to try to fill the void left by the United States.
Zelensky must also repair the relationship between the civilian government and the military. Tensions remained for months amid disagreements over halting mobilization efforts and military priorities that competed with the political need to show allies’ progress.
Military officials were concerned last year that the government wanted a roadmap to victory without telling them how many men, ammunition and reserves they would have to execute any plan, according to Gen. Viktor Nazarov, an adviser to the former commanding general in Ukraine. . army, General Valeriy Zaluzhny.
“This is what, unfortunately, our political leaders did not understand or did not want to understand when they demanded strategic plans from the military without reserves or strategic resources,” General Nazarov said in an interview.
General Zaluzhny leveled many of these same criticisms at the government before his dismissal. In an essay for CNN, for example, he argued that regulatory and production problems had hampered the defense industry, causing “production bottlenecks (in munitions, for example) that further deepen Ukraine’s dependence on its allies.” for the supply”.
Both men were fired during Zelensky’s military restructuring earlier this month. But Zelensky named General Zaluzhny a “hero of Ukraine” and shared a public hug in an effort to demonstrate unity. And General Nazarov said the disagreements should not obscure the fact that the military and civilian governments wanted the same thing: victory. Without it, he said, there is no army or government.
Officials in the president’s office declined interview requests.
Despite public tensions between the civil administration and the military command, Zelensky may have some room for maneuver as he tries to mend the relationship.
Although his rating in opinion polls has dropped slightly, he still enjoys broad public support. Nearly 70 percent of Ukrainians believe he should remain in office for as long as the country is under martial law, and that elections should be postponed until it is lifted, according to a poll released this week by the International Institute of Sociology. from Kiev.
Zelensky and military leaders are in unison in professing that they are not interested in any ceasefire reached on terms favorable to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.
The Ukrainian leader has said time and again that Russia must give up any territory it has captured. He has also stressed that any pause in fighting would not lead to the end of the war. He would simply give Russia time to rearm.
kyiv’s position “does not concern only territory, but also security,” Zelensky told Fox News on Thursday. The world, he said, should know by now that Putin simply cannot be trusted.
For the moment, General Syrsky has admitted, the initiative has passed to the Russians and Ukraine must focus on strategic defense, maximizing Russian losses while fighting intelligently to preserve its own combat strength.
General Syrsky has also spoken about the need to increase national weapons production, as well as to develop and exploit new technologies. But, like his predecessor, he will have to make strategic plans without fully knowing what resources his army will have at his disposal.
Simply put, you need more soldiers.
That challenge is under kyiv’s control, but the government has not yet revealed a plan to address it.
A bill that would reform the mobilization process (and potentially add up to 500,000 recruits) is making its way through the Ukrainian parliament. But lawmakers nervous about the political ramifications have already added about 1,300 amendments to the proposed law and it is unclear when it will be ready for a vote.
Beyond the thorny politics of the issue, Zelensky must demonstrate to the public the dire need for new troops without undermining morale, causing social unrest or damaging the already battered economy.
As the world assesses Ukraine’s prospects and the Kremlin pushes a narrative aimed at convincing viewers that it cannot be defeated, Zelensky must work equally hard to prove that Ukraine can win.
On Saturday, the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Zelensky visited the closed Hostomel airport outside Kiev, where Ukrainian soldiers defended Russian paratroopers in a key early battle that helped save the capital.
“Any normal person wants the war to end,” Zelensky said in a video recording. “But none of us will allow our country to end.”
“That’s why we always add ‘on our terms’ to words about ending the war,” he said. “That is why the word ‘independent’ will always be next to the word ‘Ukraine’ in future history. Let’s fight for it. And we will win.”