Three takeaways from the South Carolina primary and Trump’s big victory over Haley

Former President Donald Trump triumphed in the South Carolina Republican primary on Saturday, handing Nikki Haley, the state’s former governor, a particularly painful loss.

With more than 85% of the expected votes counted late Saturday, Trump had about 60% compared to Haley’s 39%. Trump had been projected to win by double digits before the primary, based on the polling average of 538, but the reality of defeat marks a significant setback to any hopes Haley had of defying the odds and securing her party’s nomination. .

“I know that 40% is not 50%,” he acknowledged in statements on election night, while promising to continue campaigning in other states.

Trump’s victory is sure to increase speculation that Haley should suspend her own candidacy. But as she did again on Saturday, she has repeatedly rebuffed his efforts to oust her before Super Tuesday in early March, although her future after that remains much less clear, in her own words.

And Trump’s victory, as in other early voting states for the nomination, masked minor but persistent problems with Republican voters outside his base that could matter in a general election.

Here are three takeaways from the South Carolina results.

Trump hands Haley a tough defeat

Trump already defeated Haley in Iowa and New Hampshire, while Haley also lost to “none of the above” in the Nevada primary, which Trump skipped to win the state’s caucuses.

But her victory in Haley’s home state by such a large margin underscores how little she accomplished in winning over her South Carolina teammates after months of predicting a strong showing there.

Past losses in home states have proven to be death sentences. For example, Senator Marco Rubio suspended his presidential bid in 2016 after Trump defeated him in Florida.

The magnitude of Trump’s victory on Saturday was evident by the initial projection of his victory, which came as soon as the polls closed.

“That’s actually something that happened a little sooner than we expected. It was an even bigger victory than we expected,” he said in his victory speech.

“There has never been a spirit like this,” he added.

Where does Haley go from here?

Haley’s path to catch up with Trump was already perilous before Saturday. It is even more so now.

New Hampshire, with its more independent-minded primary electorate, and South Carolina, its home state, were seen as offering the best – if relatively unlikely – chances for early primary victories after a distant third place finish in the Iowa caucuses. .

Instead, Haley has now lost to Trump by double digits in each of their matchups.

The next major races will be in Michigan, where there will be a confusing primary on Tuesday and a state convention on March 2. Sixteen delegates will be awarded in the primaries and 39 in the convention. Non-Republican voters can participate in the primaries (a dynamic Haley has highlighted) although only elected Republican delegates can participate in the convention.

Subsequently, 36% of all delegates will be awarded on March 5, called Super Tuesday, in which 15 states vote at once. Haley has said she could turn things around then, but as ABC News political director Rick Klein noted, her poll numbers and individual state rules show she’s not realistically targeting enough delegates. that day to catch up with Trump.

That means Haley will come under increased pressure to suspend her campaign so Republican voters and party officials can rally around Trump in the months before the general election. But she insisted Saturday that she’s not going anywhere.

“There are a large number of voters in our Republican primary who say they want an alternative,” he said after his loss.

“I am a woman of my word. I am not going to give up this fight when the majority of Americans disapprove of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden. South Carolina has spoken. We are the fourth state to do so. In the next ten 21 other states and territories will speak in days. They have the right to a real election, not a Soviet-style election with a single candidate. And I have a duty to give them that choice,” she stated.

However, he recently suggested that his future beyond March 5 is not certain.

“We’re going to continue until Super Tuesday. That’s all I’ve thought about,” he said earlier Saturday.

Trump has a lot to do with some Republicans

The South Carolina results undoubtedly mark positive news for Trump. But that does not mean that there is no room for improvement for the former president.

Illustrating the potential weight of his legal troubles, just over a third of the state’s Republican primary voters said Trump would be unfit for office if he is ultimately convicted of any of his 91 criminal charges, according to field polls. urn. (He denies any wrongdoing.)

Haley also narrowly won among moderates and did well among independents and college graduates, all groups that have been electoral flashpoints with Trump, while only 42% of primary voters identified as “part of the MAGA movement.” “.

Still, Trump saw big advantages with other demographic groups, according to exit polls.

Primary voters thought he was more electable in November than Haley by a 23-point margin, and more voters said he has the physical and mental health necessary to effectively serve as president than Haley.

He also generally demonstrated greater loyalty among his voters, while exit polls hinted at how he may motivate his critics.

Ninety-three percent of Trump voters said they voted primarily for their candidate, rather than against his opponent. Among Haley voters, 58% primarily supported her, and 40% voted primarily to oppose Trump.